⭐ OFFSEASON PHILLIE 40 ⭐
We’re in the middle of the dog days of the offseason. Looks like (to my surprise) Dave Dombrowski wasn’t kidding when he said he was fine bringing back the 2023 team. I figured this would be an appropriate time to unleash the Hinkie Phillies’ 40. It’s my ranking of the Phillies top prospects.
- Andrew Painter … the hit to his prospect status is a temporary thing. The 6'7"/225 RHP had TJ this summer, and will miss next season. That said, he’ll still only turn 22 in April 2025, when he’s expected back. Not every young pitcher rebounds well from TJ (Forrest Whitley). But, generally, young pitchers tend to do well post surgery. Jesus Luzardo, Shane McClanahan, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGromm, and Stephen Strasberg are just a handful of examples of players who had TJ at age 22 or earlier and rebounded to have 4+ WAR seasons in MLB.
2. Mick Abel … is knocking on the door. The 6'5"/205 RHP made it to LHV late in the season, and should begin 2024 with the Iron Pigs. The 22 YO needs to refine both his control and command, but you can see the makings of a SP2. The SL is already MLB ready. The FB is abv avg, though I’d like to see him throw more 2-seamers. Give up a couple of ticks of velo for greater movement. The CB & CH also need some more refinement. The chances are great young Mick gets his first taste of MLB at some point next season.
3. Justin Crawford … could be the next second generation phenom to hit MLB (Bo Bichette/Fernando Tatis/Vlad Guerrero/Bobby Witt/etc). His first full season as a minor leaguer was a major success. The wiry (6'1"/175 lb) LHH CFer slashed .332/.392/.467 across 2 levels (A & A+). His plus wheels were also on full display in both the field (covers all kinds of ground) and on the base paths (8 triples & 47 SBs). Crawford lacks present power, but the 19 YO should grow into some pop as he ages and fills out his frame.
4. Aidan Miller … was a prep prospect originally expected to go top 15 in last summer’s draft. A hand injury limited his PT and some of his pop when he did return to action. That enabled the 6'2"/205 RHH 3Bman to slide to 1–27. The Phillies had zero legit 3B prospects in their system prior to the draft. Miller, who has top of the scale power potential, immediately filled that void.
5. Orion Kerkering … was the best reliever in MiLB in 2023 as he raced through the Phillies system. The 22 YO RHP became just the second player ever to throw in A/A+/AA/AAA/MLB playoffs in the same season. Kerkering features a big FB (upper 90s) and one of the highest spinning SLs in the game. He/JTR will need to show a little more confidence in the FB going forward, but Kerkering has long time Phillie closer written all over him.
6. Wen Hui Pan … is the Phillies latest find out of Taiwan (they flipped Hao-Yu Lee for Michael Lorenzen at the deadline this year). Pan has good size (6'3"/220), top notch pedigree, and a complete pitcher’s arsenal. The 21 YO has been a standout on Taiwan’s international teams since his mid teens. He was used in relief during his first summer stateside, but this kid has 5 pitches, and should move into a rotation in 2024. The mid 90s FB has good ASR. He supplements it with two breakers (SL & CB). But my favorite offering is his Bugs Bunny-esque “splitter”. Pan sported a 1.068 WHIP, and averaged 12.4 K/9 vs just 3.4 BB/9 over 63.2 IP (A/A+) in 2023. Love this kid!
7. Devin Saltiban … was the top HS player in Hawaii, and the Phillies 3rd round pick in this summer’s draft. The athletic 18 YO RHH prospect can play two premium positions (SS and CF). He’s just 5'10", but is stout/strong @ 185 lbs. Saltiban shined at the MLB Draft League as one of the youngest players to participate (four and five years younger than many of the pitchers he faced). He slashed .262/.354/.405 hit 2 HRs and stole 3 bases in just 42 ABs. His time post draft in rookie ball was very encouraging too. He slashed .333/.391/.452 in a SSS.
8. Eduardo Tait … is the youngest kid on this list. The 6'0"/180 LHH C was just 16 YO for most of the season in the DSL. Despite his age, Tait was maybe the most exciting bat in the League (.333/.400/.517 3 HRs & a K-rate less than 19%). The Panamanian teenager has a loose, whippy swing from the left side that could translate to plus power as he matures.
9. Starlyn Caba … was one of the top international players up for grabs a year ago when the Phillies forked over 3M to sign him. The 5'10"/165 switch-hitting SS is a very charismatic/confident prospect who is an excellent defender (+glove, +range, +arm) already, and the tools to grow into a top of the order bat. As a 17 YO, Caba walked (28) almost twice as much as he struck out (16). He put up a .301/.423/.346 line in the DSL. There isn’t much current pop in his bat, but the expectation is that will come as he ages.
10. Gabriel Rincones … was drafted by Brian Barber in the 3rd round of the 2022 draft after successful stops at a JUCO and Florida Atlantic Univ. Rincones has a sweet LH swing w/some loft that should generate 20+ HRs at his peak. The 6'3"/225 COFer had a so-so 2023 at both A levels (.248/.351/.427), but he ended the year with an impressive stint in the AFL where he slashed .293/.426/.463 in 101 PAs.
11. Bryan Rincon … was a day 3 draft pick in 2022. The Phillies signed the Venezuelan native/Pittsburgh HS player away from a JUCO committment, and he hasn’t looked back. The kid currently plays SS, but may end up at 2B. It’s his bat that has stood out after a year-and-a-half in the system. Like Caba (above), Rincon swings it from both sides of the plate. Unlike Caba, Rincon already packs a punch. The 5'10"/180 lb 19 YO MIFer cleared the fences 8 times in 81 games at low A Clearwater in 2023. The kid ended the year in A+ Jersey Shore, and should begin 2024 there. Dave Dombrowski mentioned Rincon was a popular name that came up when talking trades with other clubs at the winter meetings.
12. Alex McFarlane … is a 6'3"/215 RHP with a big ceiling. McFarlane currently throws gas (upper 90s FB w/plenty of ASR). His SL is plus at times, but needs to be more consistent. It’s the third pitch (CH) and his control that will determine whether he ends up a starter or reliever. The former 4th round selection has averaged 12.5 K/9 but has allowed 6.3 BB/9 in 19 starts over the past two summers in A ball/Clearwater.
13. Griff McGarry … is/has been a really exciting prospect since the Phillies invested a R5 pick on him in 2021. The club has done the right thing in running the former UVA star out as a starting pitcher for the last 2 and-a-half summers, but it is now clear McGarry’s future is as a BP piece. The 6'2"/185 RHP has maybe the most elite “stuff” (+FB/+SL/abv avg CH/abv avg CB) in the system, but his relationship with K-zone (6.1 BB/9 over 171 IP) is just not going to cut it as a SP.
14. Christian McGowan … is another of the exciting arms the Phillies have been collecting. The 6'3"/210 RHP was the #1 JUCO pitching prospect when Brian Barber gave him over slot money to sign as a R7 pick in 2021. Unfortunately, McGowan managed just 12 innings before going down with TJ. The Texas native returned to the mound in 2023, and went 25.2 IP, 24 H, 10 BB, 28 K across four levels (from rookie ball all the way up to AAA). McGowan has thrown upper 90s in college and supplements that with a CT & CH. 2024 should be a big year. McGowan will be 2 years removed from surgery, and that’s when most guys return to peak form. The RHP will be rule 5 eligible next winter. The Phils may want to get a look at him as a late inning reliever at some point next season which is fine since the kid got some Trevor Rosenthal comps during his draft cycle.
15. Carlos De La Cruz … was brought into the Phillies system as an undrafted FA out of a NY HS in 2018. The young man has always been fascinating because of his size (6'8"/215) and athleticism (can play CF when he’s not manning a COF or 1B). Because of his long levers, the Yonkers native K’s a lot (31% as a MiLB player). However, he has grown into some serious power (24 bombs in 2023). The Phillies have left De La Cruz unprotected in the rule 5 the last 2 winters, but he’s gone unpicked. He can become a MiLB FA after next season so the club will have to add him to the 40-man roster by November 2024 or watch him walk.
16. Nikau Pouaka-Grego … is maybe the most exciting offensive prospect that nobody’s ever heard of in the Phillies system. He’s a New Zealand implant who has a lot of experience playing with Australian National Teams. Pouaka-Grego is not a big kid but he packs a great deal of offensive thump. The 5'9"/175 2Bman/SS/3Bman posted an eye-popping .301/.424/.466 line in 2022 as an 18 YO in rookie ball. Unfortunately, his 2023 campaign never happened after he tore up his knee while playing in the Australian Baseball League this time last year. When healthy, this young man controls the zone (walks as many times as he Ks), and stings the ball with some authority when he does offer.
17. Enrique Segura … is a young RHP with some size and ceiling. The 18 YO would have been a draft eligible HS senior in 2023 if he wasn’t an international signee two years prior. The 6'3"/175 prospect currently throws low 90s, but he projects to much more as he matures. Segura has some Aaron Nola in his delivery. He’s also advanced at spinning the ball. This kid has totaled 79.1 IP, 68 H, 51 BB, 72 K in his age 17 and 18 seasons in the DSL and FCL.
18. Simon Muzziotti … has been a part of the Phillies organization since 2016 after he was declared a MiLB FA because Boston skirted rules when signing international prospects. The 23 YO CFer has been a member of the Phils 40 man for the last 3 years. The Venezualen native has always had a pretty LH swing. He makes a lot of contact (just a 12% K-rate in MiLB), but has never been able to impact the baseball (.362 career slugger). Muzziotti is a capable defender, but even in that category, he’s been passed by Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache, and Brandon Marsh. All this to say Muzziotti has no where to go in this organization. The best thing that could happen to him is a change of scenery (to a rebuiding club). He’ll probably have to wait another season for that because the league saddled him with a 4th option year a couple of months ago.
19. William Bergolla … was the Phillies top international signee two years ago. The 5'11"/165 LHH SS has solid tools, and an incredibile ability to control the zone. He’s walked (41) twice as much as he’s K’d (20) in the DSL and rookie ball. To date, Bergolla has strictly been a singles hitter, but the team is hoping for more pop as he matures.
20. Andrew Baker … has one of the most live arms in the system. The 6'1"/190 RHP has the classic late inning relief profile: triple digit FB & swing-and-miss breaker. The 23 YO needs to work on throwing strikes. He’s averaged almost 8 BB/9 since being drafted. He should see AAA LHV in 2024.
21. TayShaun Walton … is a boom or bust prospect the Phillies spent a R4 draft pick on this summer. This kid looks like a linebacker @ 6'3"/225 lbs. He’s got a quick RH bat, and has demonstrated the ability to launch baseballs to the moon in HS HR tournaments. However, he belted just 1 bomb as a senior at IMG Academy. There will be a lot of pressure on Walton’s bat because he isn’t much of a defender in LF. The Virginia native looked very good this summer (in a very SSS) when he slashed .385/.529/.692 in just 17 plate appearances in rookie ball.
22. Emaarion Boyd … is maybe the speediest prospect in the Phillies system. The 6'0"/175 OFer swiped 56 bags in A ball this season. He’s another kid who does a nice job of getting on base, but currently has no power. He’s slashed .272/.377/.330 over two summers.
23. Raylin Heredia … is a dude who put together a breakout season as a 19 YO in 2023. The 6'0"/178 RHH prospect spent his first season stateside between rookie ball and Clearwater. He uses a pronounced leg lift, and it helped him put up a .314/.392/.493 line. Heredia has a plus arm, and looks like a future RFer.
24. Kehden Hettiger … is a really good looking prospect the Phillies took a flier on in R11 of the 2023 draft. The swich-hitting catcher is aggressive in the box, and has plenty of thump in his bat. If he hadn’t signed with the Phillies, Hettinger would have played for the Oregon Ducks & may have ended up a top 3 round talent in the 2025 draft.
25. Yemal Flores … is a stout little OFer with big power potential and a plus arm. He was slowed by injuries in 2023, but managed a .282/.417/.513 line in 48 plate appearances during his second trip through rookie ball.
26. Andrew Walling … was a teammate of Christian McGowan (#14) at Eastern Oklahoma Satate JUCO. Walling went undrafted before signing with the Phillies. The 6'3"/230 LHP used a 96–98 MPH FB and wicked SL to go 55.2 IP, 38 H, 29 BB, 70 K between Clearwater and Jersey Shore in 2023. A lefty with this kind of stuff could eventually earn a spot in the Phils’ MLB pen in the not so distant future.
27. McKinley Moore … is a big reliever the Phillies acquired from the White Sox in the Adam Haseley trade. The 6'7"/255 RHP attacks hitters with a 95–98 FB and abv avg SL. He’s averaged 13.5 K/9 in MiLB, but walks way too many hitters. He’s a current member of the Phillies 40-man roster.
28. Tommy McCollum … has been a real find as an undrafted Free agent. The RH reliever throws FB/SL/splitter. He’s K’d 13.7/9 IP in the Phils’ system. He’s another guy who is going to have to throw more strikes (6.5 BB/9) if he’s going to make the jump to MLB.
29. Micah Ottenbreit … was the Phillies R4 draft selection in 2021. The Michigan prepster had a low 90s FB, big breaker, developing CH, and a ton of projection. The 6'4"/195 RHP has seen his career stuck in neutral because of injuries (including TJ). To date, Ottenbreit has thrown just 14 innings over 3 seasons. 2024 could be a big rebound season. The 20 YO will be fully healthy, and should begin the year in Clearwater.
30. Jordan Viars … was a surprising/exciting R3 draft pick in 2021. The 6'2"/210 LHH 1Bman/COFer impressed the Phillies with a quick bat that projected to plus power. His first season went well in rookie ball (.255/.406/.468 w/3 HRs in 47 ABs). However, it’s been tough sledding since. The Texas native (and former Arkansas Razorback commit) has posted OPS’s under .675 in 2022 and ’23.
31. George Klassen … is a lump of clay the Phillies spent a R6 pick on this past summer. The 6'2"/180 RHP has an electric, yet unrefined arm. The Univ of Minnesota product is a TJ survivor who has a history of hitting triple digits. His secondaries (CB/SL/CH) are all mostly average-ish offerings right now. Preston Mattingly and the Phillies Development staff will have to work on them and Klassen’s strike throwing.
32. Mavis Graves … is a 6'6"/210 LHP Brian Barber picked in the 4th round of the 2022 draft. Graves was a South Carolina prep standout who was committed to play at Clemson before signing with the Phils. He currently throws low 90s, but is a good bet to add a few ticks to that as he puts on weight. He compliments the FB with a CB and CH. Graves went 34 IP, 35 H, 29 BB, 45 K this season in rookie ball.
33. Samuel Aldegheri … is the lone Italian import in the Philloies system. This paisan is a LHP with mostly BOR stuff. He’s not a big guy (6'1"/175) with a low 90s FB, avg CB, avg SL, avg CH. It’s his ability to move the ball around and tunnel those pitches that has led to success in the lower levels (11.4 K/9 vs 4.0 BB/9 as a MiLB starter). Aldegheri should see AA Reading at some point in 2024 as a 22 YO.
34. Rickardo Perez … was one of the Phillies top two international signees in 2021. The 5'10"/175 prospect was one of the top catchers up for grabs in that class. The LHH backstop was an on-base machine his first two seasons in the system (.377 OBP). Perez (turned 20 YO 2 weeks ago) should/would be ranked much higher on this list, but he didn’t play in 2023 due to suspension (for an undisclosed issue).
35 Aroon Escobar … is currently best known for being the cousin of Ronald Acuna Jr. He hopes to one day make a name for himself. The 5'11"/180 MIF has spent the past/his first two seasons in the DSL where he’s slashed .225/.370/.324 during that time. He’s been especially good at controlling the zone. He’s BB’d (44) more than he’s K’d (39). The Venezuelan native will turn 20 YO on New Years Day. He should make his stateside debut in 2024.
36. Ethan Wilson … is a 24 YO COFer who has taken a while to get on track since being taken as a 2nd rounder out of South Alabama in 2021. The LHH prospect had his best seaosn as a pro in 2023 for Reading when he went .250/.307/.443 and hit 17 bombs.
37. Erubiel Armenta … is a 23 YO LHRP with probably the highest K-rate (14.7/9 in MiLB career) of any arm in the Phillies system. He confounds hitters with a three pitch mix (92–94 FB/SL/CH) and some funk to his delivery. The 6'3"/190 prospect has some international experience on his resume. He threw for the Mexican team in the WBC a year ago. Armenta missed the 2023 season with an undisclosed injury.
38. Denilson Águila … is the newest member of the Phillies farm system. The team signed the youngster to a deal just this month. Aguilla was one of the top teenaged Cuban players before he left the island in 2021. He’s 17 YO, but looks much more physically looks older. The switch-hitting SS looks smooth at the plate and in the field. The team could start him off in the DSL in 2024, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him be sent sent directly to roolie ball stateside.
39. Avery Owusu-Asiedu … was the Phillies R9 pick in the 2023 draft. The Canadian native was one of the youngest college players available. He had just turned 20 a month before he was selected. The 6'4"/230 OFer put up a .293/.396/.590 line in his junior season at Southern Illinois Edwardsville. He showed some power (15 HRs) and some speed (24 SBs). Owusu-Asiedu swings it from the right side. He should start the 2024 season in Clearwater as a 20 YO.
40. Gavin Tonkel … is a 6'1"/210 RHH OFer the team used a day 2 draft pick on in 2021. The former Northern California prepster had a good summer on the showcase circuit to gain the Phillies attention. Tonkel’s one plus tool are his wheels. Unfortunately, the young man has been hurt more than healthy since entering the Phils’ system. He did manage 15 games/49 PA in rookie ball this season. He slashed .326/.408 /.535 .
